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The Impact of Immigration on Hepatitis B Burden in the United States: A Modelling Study

Devin Razavi-Shearer, Ivane Gamkrelidze, Calvin Q. Pan, Kathryn Razavi-Shearer, Sarah Blach, Chris Estes, Ellen Mooneyhan, and Homie Razavi


Summary

The 2016 World Health Assembly endorsed the elimination of hepatitis B virus (HBV) infections by 2030. However, the HBV prevalence in Western countries, where the historical prevalence is low and highly impacted by immigration trends, remains uncertain making planning difficult. We aimed to develop a more accurate estimate of HBV prevalence and identify key immigrant populations that need to be screened, vaccinated, and treated to achieve the elimination targets. US immigration data from 1900 forward and country-specific modeled prevalence by age and sex were used to estimate immigrated HBV infections entering the US, new infections in the US, mortality (all-cause and liver-related), and disease burden through 2030.

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