Chris Estes

July 1, 2025
Modeling the Health and Economic Impact of Pharmacologic Therapies for MASLD in the United States
Summary Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD), the most rapidly increasing and prevalent cause of chronic liver disease, is associated with substantial healthcare costs. As disease burden and costs mount, pharmacologic therapy which halts MASLD fibrosis progression is coming to fruition. Modeling the impact on disease progression of a hypothetical pharmacologic therapy which halts MASLD […]

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June 1, 2023
The Impact of Immigration on Hepatitis B Burden in the United States: A Modelling Study
Summary The 2016 World Health Assembly endorsed the elimination of hepatitis B virus (HBV) infections by 2030. However, the HBV prevalence in Western countries, where the historical prevalence is low and highly impacted by immigration trends, remains uncertain making planning difficult. We aimed to develop a more accurate estimate of HBV prevalence and identify key […]

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June 1, 2023
Cost-Effectiveness of Treating All Hepatitis B–Positive Individuals in the United States
Summary Chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection is a leading cause of liver disease and related mortality globally. However, most of the infected individuals in the United States remain undiagnosed and untreated. There is a need to understand more completely the economic and disease burden impact of removing treatment restrictions and increasing diagnosis and treatment. […]

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January 10, 2023
Cost-Effectiveness Modelling of Birth and Infant Dose Vaccination Against Hepatitis B Virus in Ontario from 2020 to 2050
Summary The World Health Organization recommends universal birth dose vaccination for hepatitis B virus (HBV), yet only 3 provinces and territories in Canada provide birth dose vaccination, and Canadian-born children in Ontario are acquiring HBV before adolescent vaccination. We sought to determine whether birth and/or infant HBV vaccination is cost-effective. We used a dynamic HBV […]

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January 6, 2023
Viral Hepatitis Elimination Challenges in Low- and Middle-Income Countries—Uzbekistan Hepatitis Elimination Program (UHEP)
Summary Chronic infection with hepatitis B and C viruses (HBV & HCV) is a major contributor to liver disease and liver-related mortality in Uzbekistan. There is a need to demonstrate the feasibility of large-scale simplified testing and treatment to implement a national viral hepatitis elimination program. Thirteen polyclinics were utilized to screen, conduct follow-up biochemical […]

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January 1, 2023
Modeling HCV Elimination Recovery Following the COVID-19 Pandemic in the United States: Pathways to Regain Progress
Summary As of 2019, the United States (US) was not on track to achieve targets for elimination, due to increasing incidence and treatment barriers. In 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted HCV services globally and in the US. As healthcare services normalize, there is an urgent need to reassess progress and evaluate scenarios that restore a […]

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February 16, 2022
Global change in hepatitis C virus prevalence and cascade of care between 2015 and 2020: a modelling study
Summary Background Since the release of the first global hepatitis elimination targets in 2016, and until the COVID-19 pandemic started in early 2020, many countries and territories were making progress toward hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination. This study aims to evaluate HCV burden in 2020, and forecast HCV burden by 2030 given current trends. Methods This analysis […]

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August 30, 2021
Epidemiology, Natural History, and Outcomes of Primary Sclerosing Cholangitis: A Systematic Review of Population-based Studies
Summary Background & aims The aim of this study was to quantify the global epidemiology of primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC), alongside the incidence of liver transplantation, cancer, and death, through robust systematic review of population-based data. Methods We searched MEDLINE and EMBASE up to and including June 30, 2020 to identify population-based studies reporting the […]

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January 28, 2021
Global prevalence of hepatitis C virus in women of childbearing age in 2019: a modelling study
Summary Background Treatment for infection with hepatitis C virus (HCV) during pregnancy has not yet been approved; however, interventions specifically targeting women, especially those of childbearing age (15–49 years), could prevent vertical transmission and community spread. To assess the impact of such interventions, improved prevalence estimates in this group are needed. We aimed to estimate […]

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August 7, 2020
Impact of COVID-19 on global HCV elimination efforts
Summary Background & Aims Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has placed a significant strain on national healthcare systems at a critical moment in the context of hepatitis elimination. Mathematical models can be used to evaluate the possible impact of programmatic delays on hepatitis disease burden. The objective of this analysis was to evaluate the incremental change […]

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Chris Estes

Modeling the Health and Economic Impact of Pharmacologic Therapies for MASLD in the United States

The Impact of Immigration on Hepatitis B Burden in the United States: A Modelling Study

Cost-Effectiveness of Treating All Hepatitis B–Positive Individuals in the United States

Cost-Effectiveness Modelling of Birth and Infant Dose Vaccination Against Hepatitis B Virus in Ontario from 2020 to 2050

Viral Hepatitis Elimination Challenges in Low- and Middle-Income Countries—Uzbekistan Hepatitis Elimination Program (UHEP)

Modeling HCV Elimination Recovery Following the COVID-19 Pandemic in the United States: Pathways to Regain Progress

Global change in hepatitis C virus prevalence and cascade of care between 2015 and 2020: a modelling study

Epidemiology, Natural History, and Outcomes of Primary Sclerosing Cholangitis: A Systematic Review of Population-based Studies

Global prevalence of hepatitis C virus in women of childbearing age in 2019: a modelling study

Impact of COVID-19 on global HCV elimination efforts

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