Summary
Background
This manuscript serves as an update to position papers published in 2014 based on the available Belgian hepatitis C virus (HCV) epidemiological data.
Methods
Building on the current standard of care (2015: 900 = F3 patients treated with 70-85% SVR), four new scenarios were developed to achieve the goals of near viral elimination and prevention of HCV associated morbidity and mortality by 2026 and 2031. Increases in treatment efficacy were assumed in 2016 (90% SVR) and 2017 (95% SVR).
Results
Scenario 1: Treating 6,670 patients annually by 2018 (= F0 beginning in 2017) and diagnosing 3,790 patients annually by 2020, a 90% reduction in viremic cases and advanced outcomes was observed by 2026. Scenario 2: Treating 4,300 patients annually by 2018 (= F0 beginning in 2020) without increasing the number diagnosed, a 90% reduction in viremic cases and 85%-95% reduction in advanced outcomes was observed by 2031. Scenario 3: Treating 5,000 = F2 patients annually by 2018, and diagnosing 3,620 patients annually by 2020, a 90% reduction in advanced outcomes and 50% reduction in viremic cases was observed by 2026. Scenario 4: Treating 3,100 = F2 patients annually by 2018 without increasing the number diagnosed, a 90%-95% reduction in advanced outcomes and 55% reduction in viremic cases was observed by 2031.
Conclusions
Scenario 2 would provide the most favorable balance of outcomes (90% reduction in viremic prevalence and advanced outcomes) and realistic requirements for implementation (gradual increase in treatment, delayed incorporation of patients with no/mild fibrosis).
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