Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is a major public health burden in Egypt [1], [2]. A number of studies have characterised HCV infection rate in Egypt [3], [1], [4], [5] but they have focused on quantifying the prevalence or total number of HCV infections. The future outlook of the disease burden is not known. This, however, is expected to increase as the infected population ages [6], [7].
A number of new treatment options have become, and will become, available in the immediate future, with much higher efficacy (cure rates >90%) compared to the current standard of care. The policy-makers will need reliable projection data to evaluate how to utilise these therapies most efficiently.
The aim of this review is to analyse current number of infections in different disease stages, and to estimate the future burden of HCV disease if the current infection rate, treatment paradigm and response rate are continued. The current and future therapies are reviewed, and a model is used to examine the impact of different treatment strategies on the future disease burden. The objective is to analyse the impact of changes in treatment and response rate on the disease burden as a possible method for disease control.
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