Lives saved with vaccination for 10 pathogens across 112 countries in a pre-COVID-19 world

Toor J, Echeverria-Londono S, Li X, Abbas K, Carter ED, Clapham HE, Clark A, de Villiers MJ, Eilertson K, Ferrari M, Gamkrelidze I, Hallett TB, Hinsley WR, Hogan D, Huber JH, Jackson ML, Jean K, Jit M, Karachaliou A, Klepac P, Kraay A, Lessler J, Li X, Lopman BA, Mengistu T, Metcalf CJE, Moore SM, Nayagam S, Papadopoulos T, Perkins TA, Portnoy A, Razavi H, Razavi-Shearer D, Resch S, Sanderson C, Sweet S, Tam Y, Tanvir H, Tran Minh Q, Trotter CL, Truelove SA, Vynnycky E, Walker N, Winter A, Woodruff K, Ferguson NM, Gaythorpe KA. Lives saved with vaccination for 10 pathogens across 112 countries in a pre-COVID-19 world. Elife. 2021 Jul 13;10:e67635. doi: 10.7554/eLife.67635. PMID: 34253291; PMCID: PMC8277373.

Summary

Background

Vaccination is one of the most effective public health interventions. We investigate the impact of vaccination activities for Haemophilus influenzae type b, hepatitis B, human papillomavirus, Japanese encephalitis, measles, Neisseria meningitidis serogroup A, rotavirus, rubella, Streptococcus pneumoniae, and yellow fever over the years 2000-2030 across 112 countries.

Methods

Twenty-one mathematical models estimated disease burden using standardised demographic and immunisation data. Impact was attributed to the year of vaccination through vaccine-activity-stratified impact ratios.

Results

We estimate 97 (95%CrI[80, 120]) million deaths would be averted due to vaccination activities over 2000-2030, with 50 (95%CrI[41, 62]) million deaths averted by activities between 2000 and 2019. For children under-5 born between 2000 and 2030, we estimate 52 (95%CrI[41, 69]) million more deaths would occur over their lifetimes without vaccination against these diseases.

Conclusions

This study represents the largest assessment of vaccine impact before COVID-19-related disruptions and provides motivation for sustaining and improving global vaccination coverage in the future.

Countries/Territories: Global