The present and future disease burden of hepatitis C virus infections with today’s treatment paradigm: Volume 4

Chan HLY, Chen CJ, Omede O, Al Qamish J, Al Naamani K, Bane A, Tan SS, Simonova M, Cardenas I, Derbala M, Akin O, Phillips RO, Abdelmageed MK, Abdulla M, Adda D, Al Baqali A, Al Dweik N, Al Ejji K, Al Ghazzawi I, Al Kaabi S, Al Sadadi M, Al Salman J, AlBadri M, Al-Busafi SA, Al-Romaihi HE, Ampofo W, Antonov K, Anyaike C, Arome F, Blach S, Borodo MM, Brandon SM, Bright B, Butt MT, Chen DS, Chen PJ, Chien RN, Chuang WL, Cuellar D, Elbardiny AA, Estes C, Farag E, Fung J, Gamkrelidze I, Garcia V, Genov J, Ghandour Z, Ghuloom M, Gomez B, Gunter J, Habeeb J, Hajelssedig O, Hamoudi W, Himatt SM, Hrstic I, Hu CC, Huang CF, Hui YT, Jahis R, Jelev D, John AK, Kaliaskarova KS, Kamel Y, Kao JH, Khamis J, Khattabi H, Khoudri I, Konysbekova A, Kotzev I, Lai MS, Lao WC, Layden J, Lee MH, Lesi O, Li M, Lo A, Loo CK, Lukšić B, Maaroufi A, Malu AO, Mateva L, Mitova R, Mohamed R, Morović M, Murphy K, Mustapha B, Nersesov A, Ngige E, Njouom R, Njoya O, Nonković D, Obekpa S, Oguche S, Okolo EE, Omuemu C, Ondoa P, Opare-Sem O, Owusu-Ofori S, Prokopenko YN, Razavi H, Razavi-Shearer D, Razavi-Shearer K, Redae B, Reic T, Rinke de Wit T, Rios C, Robbins S, Roberts LR, Sanad SJ, Schmelzer JD, Sharma M, Su TH, Sultan K, Tchernev K, Tsang OTY, Tsang S, Tzeuton C, Ugoeze S, Uzochukwu B, Vi R, Vince A, Wani HU, Wong VWS, Workneh A, Yacoub R, Yesmembetov KI, Youbi M, Yuen MF, Nde H. The present and future disease burden of hepatitis C virus infections with today’s treatment paradigm: Volume 4. J Viral Hepat. 2017 Oct;24 Suppl 2:25-43. doi: 10.1111/jvh.12760. PMID: 29105283.

Summary

Factors influencing the morbidity and mortality associated with viremic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection change over time and place, making it difficult to compare reported estimates. Models were developed for 17 countries (Bahrain, Bulgaria, Cameroon, Colombia, Croatia, Dominican Republic, Ethiopia, Ghana, Hong Kong, Jordan, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Morocco, Nigeria, Qatar and Taiwan) to quantify and characterize the viremic population as well as forecast the changes in the infected population and the corresponding disease burden from 2015 to 2030. Model inputs were agreed upon through expert consensus, and a standardized methodology was followed to allow for comparison across countries. The viremic prevalence is expected to remain constant or decline in all but four countries (Ethiopia, Ghana, Jordan and Oman); however, HCV-related morbidity and mortality will increase in all countries except Qatar and Taiwan. In Qatar, the high-treatment rate will contribute to a reduction in total cases and HCV-related morbidity by 2030. In the remaining countries, however, the current treatment paradigm will be insufficient to achieve large reductions in HCV-related morbidity and mortality.

Countries: Bahrain, Bulgaria, Cameroon, Colombia, Croatia, Dominican Republic, Ethiopia, Ghana, Hong Kong, Jordan, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Morocco, Nigeria, Qatar and Taiwan