The present and future disease burden of hepatitis C virus infections with today’s treatment paradigm – volume 3

Sibley A, Han KH, Abourached A, Lesmana LA, Makara M, Jafri W, Salupere R, Assiri AM, Goldis A, Abaalkhail F, Abbas Z, Abdou A, Al Braiki F, Al Hosani F, Al Jaberi K, Al Khatry M, Al Mulla MA, Al Quraishi H, Al Rifai A, Al Serkal Y, Alam A, Alavian SM, Alashgar HI, Alawadhi S, Al-Dabal L, Aldins P, Alfaleh FZ, Alghamdi AS, Al-Hakeem R, Aljumah AA, Almessabi A, Alqutub AN, Alswat KA, Altraif I, Alzaabi M, Andrea N, Babatin MA, Baqir A, Barakat MT, Bergmann OM, Bizri AR, Blach S, Chaudhry A, Choi MS, Diab T, Djauzi S, El Hassan ES, El Khoury S, Estes C, Fakhry S, Farooqi JI, Fridjonsdottir H, Gani RA, Ghafoor Khan A, Gheorghe L, Gottfredsson M, Gregorcic S, Gunter J, Hajarizadeh B, Hamid S, Hasan I, Hashim A, Horvath G, Hunyady B, Husni R, Jeruma A, Jonasson JG, Karlsdottir B, Kim DY, Kim YS, Koutoubi Z, Liakina V, Lim YS, Löve A, Maimets M, Malekzadeh R, Matičič M, Memon MS, Merat S, Mokhbat JE, Mourad FH, Muljono DH, Nawaz A, Nugrahini N, Olafsson S, Priohutomo S, Qureshi H, Rassam P, Razavi H, Razavi-Shearer D, Razavi-Shearer K, Rozentale B, Sadik M, Saeed K, Salamat A, Sanai FM, Sanityoso Sulaiman A, Sayegh RA, Sharara AI, Siddiq M, Siddiqui AM, Sigmundsdottir G, Sigurdardottir B, Speiciene D, Sulaiman A, Sultan MA, Taha M, Tanaka J, Tarifi H, Tayyab G, Tolmane I, Ud Din M, Umar M, Valantinas J, Videčnik-Zorman J, Yaghi C, Yunihastuti E, Yusuf MA, Zuberi BF, Schmelzer JD. The present and future disease burden of hepatitis C virus infections with today’s treatment paradigm – volume 3. J Viral Hepat. 2015 Dec;22 Suppl 4:21-41. doi: 10.1111/jvh.12476. PMID: 26513446.

Summary

The total number, morbidity and mortality attributed to viraemic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infections change over time making it difficult to compare reported estimates from different years. Models were developed for 15 countries to quantify and characterize the viraemic population and forecast the changes in the infected population and the corresponding disease burden from 2014 to 2030. With the exception of Iceland, Iran, Latvia and Pakistan, the total number of viraemic HCV infections is expected to decline from 2014 to 2030, but the associated morbidity and mortality are expected to increase in all countries except for Japan and South Korea. In the latter two countries, mortality due to an ageing population will drive down prevalence, morbidity and mortality. On the other hand, both countries have already experienced a rapid increase in HCV-related mortality and morbidity. HCV-related morbidity and mortality are projected to increase between 2014 and 2030 in all other countries as result of an ageing HCV infected population. Thus, although the total number of HCV countries is expected to decline in most countries studied, the associated disease burden is expected to increase. The current treatment paradigm is inadequate if large reductions in HCV-related morbidity and mortality are to be achieved.

Countries: Estonia, Hungary, Iceland, Indonesia, Iran, Japan, Latvia, Lebanon, Lithuania, Pakistan, Romania, Saudi Arabia, Slovenia, South Korea, United Arab Emirates