Ivane Gamkrelidze

July 13, 2021
Lives saved with vaccination for 10 pathogens across 112 countries in a pre-COVID-19 world
Summary Background Vaccination is one of the most effective public health interventions. We investigate the impact of vaccination activities for Haemophilus influenzae type b, hepatitis B, human papillomavirus, Japanese encephalitis, measles, Neisseria meningitidis serogroup A, rotavirus, rubella, Streptococcus pneumoniae, and yellow fever over the years 2000-2030 across 112 countries. Methods Twenty-one mathematical models estimated disease burden using standardised demographic and […]

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January 30, 2021
Estimating the health impact of vaccination against ten pathogens in 98 low-income and middle-income countries from 2000 to 2030: a modelling study
Summary Background The past two decades have seen expansion of childhood vaccination programmes in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). We quantify the health impact of these programmes by estimating the deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) averted by vaccination against ten pathogens in 98 LMICs between 2000 and 2030. Methods 16 independent research groups provided model-based […]

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January 28, 2021
Global prevalence of hepatitis C virus in women of childbearing age in 2019: a modelling study
Summary Background Treatment for infection with hepatitis C virus (HCV) during pregnancy has not yet been approved; however, interventions specifically targeting women, especially those of childbearing age (15–49 years), could prevent vertical transmission and community spread. To assess the impact of such interventions, improved prevalence estimates in this group are needed. We aimed to estimate […]

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January 19, 2021
Progress towards hepatitis C virus elimination in high-income countries: An updated analysis
Summary Background & aims Elimination of HCV by 2030, as defined by the World Health Organization (WHO), is attainable with the availability of highly efficacious therapies. This study reports progress made in the timing of HCV elimination in 45 high-income countries between 2017 and 2019. Methods Disease progression models of HCV infection for each country […]

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August 10, 2020
Modelling hepatitis B virus infection and impact of timely birth dose vaccine: A comparison of two simulation models
Summary Hepatitis B is a global epidemic that requires carefully orchestrated vaccination initiatives in geographical regions of medium to high endemicity to reach the World Health Organization’s elimination targets by 2030. This study compares two widely-used deterministic hepatitis B models—the Imperial HBV model and the CDA Foundation’s PRoGReSs—based on their predicted outcomes in four countries. […]

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August 7, 2020
Impact of COVID-19 on global HCV elimination efforts
Summary Background & Aims Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has placed a significant strain on national healthcare systems at a critical moment in the context of hepatitis elimination. Mathematical models can be used to evaluate the possible impact of programmatic delays on hepatitis disease burden. The objective of this analysis was to evaluate the incremental change […]

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April 2, 2020
Optimization of hepatitis C virus screening strategies by birth cohort in Italy
Summary Optimization of hepatitis C virus screening strategies by birth cohort in Italy Background and Aims Cost-effective screening strategies are needed to make hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination a reality. We determined if birth cohort screening is cost-effective in Italy. Methods A model was developed to quantify screening and healthcare costs associated with HCV. The […]

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January 16, 2020
Global prevalence of hepatitis C virus in children in 2018: a modelling study
Summary Background Hepatitis C virus (HCV) prevalence estimates for adults and high-risk groups have been widely published, but the disease burden in children is poorly understood. Direct-acting antiviral drugs, which are considered to be highly effective curative therapies for HCV, are now approved for paediatric patients as young as 3 years. Reliable prevalence estimates for […]

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August 10, 2018
Forecasting Hepatitis C liver disease burden on real life data. Does the hidden iceberg matter to reach the elimination goals?
Summary Background & Aims Advances in direct acting anti-viral treatment of HCV have reinvigorated public health initiatives aimed at identifying affected individuals. We evaluated the possible impact of only diagnosed and linked-to-care individuals on overall HCV burden estimates and identified a possible strategy to achieve the WHO targets by 2030. Methods Using a modelling approach […]

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October 30, 2017
Strategies to manage hepatitis C virus infection disease burden—Volume 4
Summary The hepatitis C virus (HCV) epidemic was forecasted through 2030 for 17 countries in Africa, Asia, Europe, Latin America and the Middle East, and interventions for achieving the Global Health Sector Strategy on viral hepatitis targets-“WHO Targets” (65% reduction in HCV-related deaths, 90% reduction in new infections and 90% of infections diagnosed by 2030) […]

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