{"id":3070,"date":"2011-07-12T23:06:00","date_gmt":"2011-07-12T23:06:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cdafound.org\/?p=3070"},"modified":"2025-01-16T20:14:37","modified_gmt":"2025-01-16T20:14:37","slug":"applying-a-system-approach-to-forecast-the-total-hepatitis-c-virus-infected-population-size-model-validation-using-us-data","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cdafound.org\/zh\/applying-a-system-approach-to-forecast-the-total-hepatitis-c-virus-infected-population-size-model-validation-using-us-data\/","title":{"rendered":"\u5e94\u7528\u7cfb\u7edf\u65b9\u6cd5\u9884\u6d4b\u4e19\u578b\u809d\u708e\u75c5\u6bd2\u611f\u67d3\u603b\u4eba\u53e3\u89c4\u6a21\uff1a\u4f7f\u7528\u7f8e\u56fd\u6570\u636e\u8fdb\u884c\u6a21\u578b\u9a8c\u8bc1"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u6982\u62ec<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u80cc\u666f<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4e19\u578b\u809d\u708e\u75c5\u6bd2\uff08HCV\uff09\u611f\u67d3\u4e0e\u6162\u6027\u8fdb\u5c55\u6027\u809d\u75c5\u76f8\u5173\u3002\u5176\u5168\u7403\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u5b66\u5c1a\u4e0d\u660e\u786e\uff0c\u672a\u6765\u5341\u5e74\u5176\u5f71\u54cd\u5c06\u9762\u4e34\u66f4\u5927\u7684\u8d1f\u62c5\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u76ee\u7684<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>\u672c\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u76ee\u6807\u662f\u5f00\u53d1\u4e00\u79cd\u5de5\u5177\uff0c\u7528\u4e8e\u9884\u6d4b\u4e0d\u540c\u56fd\u5bb6\u672a\u6765\u75be\u75c5\u7684\u6d41\u884c\u60c5\u51b5\uff0c\u66f4\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u4e86\u89e3\u5173\u952e\u5047\u8bbe\u4e0e\u672a\u6765\u8d8b\u52bf\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u5173\u7cfb\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u65b9\u6cd5<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6211\u4eec\u91c7\u7528\u7cfb\u7edf\u65b9\u6cd5\u6784\u5efa\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u6a21\u62df\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u4e3a\u6bcf\u4e2a\u4eba\u53e3\u8bbe\u5b9a\u4e86\u9002\u5f53\u7684\u6d41\u5165\u548c\u6d41\u51fa\u91cf\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u8fd0\u7528\u654f\u611f\u6027\u5206\u6790\u6765\u786e\u5b9a\u672a\u6765\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u9a71\u52a8\u56e0\u7d20\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u7ed3\u679c<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e19\u578b\u809d\u708e\u75c5\u6bd2\u611f\u67d3\u603b\u4eba\u6570\u9884\u8ba1\u5c06\u4ece2005\u5e74\u7684315\u4e07\u4e0b\u964d\u81f32021\u5e74\u7684247\u4e07\uff0c\u4e0b\u964d\u5e45\u5ea6\u8fbe24%\u3002\u4e0e\u6b64\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u968f\u7740\u5269\u4f59\u611f\u67d3\u4eba\u7fa4\u7684\u8001\u9f84\u5316\uff0c\u75be\u75c5\u8d1f\u62c5\u5c06\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u52a0\u91cd\u3002\u540c\u671f\uff0c\u6b7b\u4ea1\u7387\u9884\u8ba1\u5c06\u4ece2.1%\u4e0a\u5347\u81f33.1%\u3002\u786e\u8bca\u75c5\u4f8b\u5360\u603b\u611f\u67d3\u4eba\u6570\u768450%\uff0c\u800c\u63a5\u53d7\u6cbb\u7597\u7684\u611f\u67d3\u4eba\u6570\u4e0d\u8db32%\u3002 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u7ed3\u8bba<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>\u6211\u4eec\u521b\u5efa\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u6846\u67b6\u6765\u8bc4\u4f30\u4e16\u754c\u5404\u56fd\u4e19\u578b\u809d\u708e\u75c5\u6bd2\u611f\u67d3\u4eba\u7fa4\u3002\u8be5\u6a21\u578b\u6216\u8bb8\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u8bc4\u4f30\u5e94\u5bf9\u4e19\u578b\u809d\u708e\u75c5\u6bd2\u611f\u67d3\u548c\u75be\u75c5\u6f14\u53d8\u6240\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u6311\u6218\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u6548\u679c\u3002\u8be5\u9884\u6d4b\u5de5\u5177\u6216\u8bb8\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u5236\u5b9a\u65b0\u7684\u516c\u5171\u536b\u751f\u6218\u7565\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u56fd\u5bb6\uff1a<\/strong> \u7f8e\u56fd<\/p>\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons is-content-justification-center is-layout-flex wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-button is-style-outline is-style-outline--1\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link has-text-color wp-element-button\" href=\"https:\/\/pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov\/21651700\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u9605\u8bfb\u5b8c\u6574\u62a5\u544a<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Summary Background Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is associated with chronic progressive liver disease. Its global epidemiology is still not well ascertained and its impact will be confronted with a higher burden in the next decade. Aim The goal of this study was to develop a tool that can be used to predict the future [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":24,"featured_media":3486,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[9],"tags":[10],"publication-author":[2623,2624,2626,715,2146,2627,522,2625,1118,2628,616,2124],"class_list":["post-3070","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-publication","tag-hcv","publication-author-alberti-a","publication-author-cooper-cl","publication-author-dusheiko-gm","publication-author-han-kh","publication-author-kershenobich-d","publication-author-koike-k","publication-author-negro-f","publication-author-pol-s","publication-author-razavi-ha","publication-author-wallace-cm","publication-author-zeuzem-s","publication-author-zuckerman-e"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/cdafound.org\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3070","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/cdafound.org\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/cdafound.org\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cdafound.org\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/24"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cdafound.org\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3070"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/cdafound.org\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3070\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":7667,"href":"https:\/\/cdafound.org\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3070\/revisions\/7667"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cdafound.org\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3486"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/cdafound.org\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3070"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cdafound.org\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3070"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cdafound.org\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3070"},{"taxonomy":"publication-author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cdafound.org\/zh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/publication-author?post=3070"}],"curies":[{"name":"\u53ef\u6e7f\u6027\u7c89\u5242","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}