{"id":3070,"date":"2011-07-12T23:06:00","date_gmt":"2011-07-12T23:06:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cdafound.org\/?p=3070"},"modified":"2025-01-16T20:14:37","modified_gmt":"2025-01-16T20:14:37","slug":"applying-a-system-approach-to-forecast-the-total-hepatitis-c-virus-infected-population-size-model-validation-using-us-data","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cdafound.org\/fr\/applying-a-system-approach-to-forecast-the-total-hepatitis-c-virus-infected-population-size-model-validation-using-us-data\/","title":{"rendered":"Application d'une approche syst\u00e9mique pour pr\u00e9voir la taille totale de la population infect\u00e9e par le virus de l'h\u00e9patite C: validation du mod\u00e8le \u00e0 l'aide de donn\u00e9es am\u00e9ricaines"},"content":{"rendered":"

R\u00e9sum\u00e9<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Arri\u00e8re-plan<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

L'infection par le virus de l'h\u00e9patite C (VHC) est associ\u00e9e \u00e0 une maladie h\u00e9patique chronique \u00e9volutive. Son \u00e9pid\u00e9miologie mondiale n'est pas encore bien \u00e9tablie et son impact sera confront\u00e9 \u00e0 un fardeau plus lourd au cours de la prochaine d\u00e9cennie. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Objectif<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Le but de cette \u00e9tude \u00e9tait de d\u00e9velopper un outil pouvant \u00eatre utilis\u00e9 pour pr\u00e9dire la pr\u00e9valence future de la maladie dans diff\u00e9rents pays et, plus important encore, pour comprendre la relation de cause \u00e0 effet entre les hypoth\u00e8ses cl\u00e9s et les tendances futures. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

M\u00e9thodes<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Une approche syst\u00e9mique a \u00e9t\u00e9 utilis\u00e9e pour construire un mod\u00e8le de simulation o\u00f9 chaque population a \u00e9t\u00e9 mod\u00e9lis\u00e9e avec les entr\u00e9es et sorties appropri\u00e9es. Une analyse de sensibilit\u00e9 a \u00e9t\u00e9 utilis\u00e9e pour identifier les principaux facteurs de pr\u00e9valence future. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

R\u00e9sultats<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

On estime que la population totale infect\u00e9e par le VHC aux \u00c9tats-Unis diminuera le 24% de 3,15 millions en 2005 \u00e0 2,47 millions en 2021, tandis que le fardeau de la maladie augmentera \u00e0 mesure que la population infect\u00e9e restante vieillira. Au cours de la m\u00eame p\u00e9riode, le taux de mortalit\u00e9 devrait passer de 2,1 \u00e0 3,11 TP1T. La population diagnostiqu\u00e9e \u00e9tait de 50% du total des infections, tandis que moins de 2% du total des infections ont \u00e9t\u00e9 trait\u00e9es. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Conclusion<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Nous avons cr\u00e9\u00e9 un cadre pour \u00e9valuer les populations infect\u00e9es par le VHC dans les pays du monde entier. Ce mod\u00e8le peut aider \u00e0 \u00e9valuer l'impact des politiques pour relever les d\u00e9fis pr\u00e9dits par l'\u00e9volution de l'infection et de la maladie par le VHC. Cet outil de pr\u00e9diction peut aider \u00e0 cibler de nouvelles strat\u00e9gies de sant\u00e9 publique.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Des pays:<\/strong> \u00c9tats Unis<\/p>\n\n

\n
Lire le rapport complet<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Summary Background Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is associated with chronic progressive liver disease. Its global epidemiology is still not well ascertained and its impact will be confronted with a higher burden in the next decade. Aim The goal of this study was to develop a tool that can be used to predict the future […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":24,"featured_media":3486,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[9],"tags":[10],"publication-author":[2623,2624,2626,715,2146,2627,522,2625,1118,2628,616,2124],"class_list":["post-3070","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-publication","tag-hcv","publication-author-alberti-a","publication-author-cooper-cl","publication-author-dusheiko-gm","publication-author-han-kh","publication-author-kershenobich-d","publication-author-koike-k","publication-author-negro-f","publication-author-pol-s","publication-author-razavi-ha","publication-author-wallace-cm","publication-author-zeuzem-s","publication-author-zuckerman-e"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/cdafound.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3070","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/cdafound.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/cdafound.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cdafound.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/24"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cdafound.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3070"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/cdafound.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3070\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":7667,"href":"https:\/\/cdafound.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3070\/revisions\/7667"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cdafound.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3486"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/cdafound.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3070"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cdafound.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3070"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cdafound.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3070"},{"taxonomy":"publication-author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cdafound.org\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/publication-author?post=3070"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}